By admin 
Hurricane Genevieve on Monday became the first Category 5 storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean since Hurricane Kristy in 2024, with winds peaking at 160 mph, and the strongest July Cat 5 in the basin since 2002.
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It has since weakened to a high-end Category 4 storm, with wind speeds still topping out at 150 mph as of 2 p.m. Pacific time.
The pace that Genevieve has strengthened is remarkable. Undergoing rapid intensification – an actual meteorological term – the hurricane doubled its wind speed in roughly 30 hours. Rapid intensification is a phase some tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) can enter when surrounded by a perfect environment with warm ocean waters and a lack of atmospheric turbulence.
Strengthening from a weak Category 1, 80-mph hurricane Saturday evening to 160 mph by early Monday morning, Genevieve intensified at breakneck pace – with winds increasing more than 65 mph in a 24-hour window, over 1.5 times the NHC’s formal rapid intensification threshold.
And wind speed isn’t the most precise measurement of the storm’s true strength — pressure is. The lower the central air pressure of the eye, the more the entire storm surrounding it rage in an attempt to fill the eye. On that end, Genevieve’s central pressure has crashed 64 millibars in under two days, falling from 993 mb as a tropical storm early Saturday to 929 mb at peak intensity – one of the steepest pressure collapses in the eastern Pacific in recent years.
Here’s a nifty way to think about it: If 1000 mb is roughly average sea-level air pressure, then by this metric Genevieve has removed 7% of the entire atmosphere away from its center eye, a feat achieved only by the strongest hurricanes and typhoons.
Thankfully for us, Genevieve is headed west and out into the open ocean and poses no threat to land. Its only immediate impacts will be higher surf on the West Coast and Hawaii through the week.
Genevieve fueled by record warm El Niño waters
The hurricane’s remarkable intensification is fueled by a deep pool of anomalously warm water directly linked to the rapidly strengthening El Niño, which works to greatly warm sea surface temperatures in this part of the ocean.
Temperatures measured by satellite in Genevieve’s vicinity are running at around 86 degrees Fahrenheit, nearly 3 degrees above normal for this time of year.
With temperatures much warmer than they otherwise would be, there is more fuel for tropical cyclones such as hurricanes to convert into kinetic energy. That drives the wind speeds up. The warmer the water, the stronger hurricane.
As the storm moves west into cooler waters later this week, it will be unable to sustain its intense strength.
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In the meantime, the storm’s winds will shove massive amounts of water towards the coast. Later this week, waves in Southern California could be up to 11 feet high, posing a prolonged window of a rip current risk.
East Pacific hurricane machine unlikely to slow down
Last week Hurricane Elida was bringing moisture and clouds to California. And over the weekend, Hurricane Fausto was stirring up surf in Southern California on its approach to Hawaii. Now, Hurricane Genevieve is raging in the open ocean.
The hurricane machine is running smoothly in the eastern Pacific, and given that El Niño is only expected to strengthen through the coming months, ocean temperatures in the area will continue to promote tropical storm and hurricane development – perhaps to an even greater degree than it already has.
This means an increase in the number of forming hurricanes and tropical storms for the east Pacific, potentially posing a greater risk that Mexico and Hawaii could face a land-falling storm over the next several months. Hurricane Fausto is already set to make a close pass by Hawaii later this week.
It also means that the hurricane season will last longer. That distinction itself is important for California. Typically, water temperatures are starting to cool down in October and November, marking the tail end of hurricane season. With El Niño still strengthening, that window for tropical cyclone development will last longer into fall when the atmospheric pattern that governs our weather is set to change.
Come October and November, tropical cyclones are more inclined to be pulled north by a more wobbly jet stream, instead of west and out to sea like Hurricane Genevieve right now. That combination will increase the exposure of California to stronger tropical systems during these months.
While rare, California and the Southwest are not strangers to tropical systems — it’s just that they normally fall apart by the time they arrive. Three years ago, the remnants of Hurricane Hillary brought intense flooding and torrential rainfall to parts of California and Nevada.
Could a hurricane actually make it to California though? It’s actually already happened. In October 1858, a Category 1 hurricane made landfall in .
With El Niño ongoing, waters off San Diego this year are significantly warmer than normal for this time of year, with a buoy recently measuring 76 degrees and widespread measurements recorded elsewhere in the 70s. The threshold temperature to support hurricanes is commonly considered to be 80 degrees — so the water temperatures are not far off.
If a strong enough hurricane were to move north with enough pace, it could potentially make it to the California coast intact before weakening over the cooler waters. To be fair, a hurricane making landfall is still unlikely for the state this year, but the risk is higher than in years past.