{"id":2305,"date":"2026-06-28T17:35:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T17:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=2305"},"modified":"2026-06-28T17:35:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T17:35:11","slug":"former-nasdaq-ceo-robert-greifeld-warns-800b-in-spacex-lockup-shares-expiring-by-october-is-the-dominant-risk-factor-for-spcx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=2305","title":{"rendered":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>I have now covered SpaceX&#8217;s post-IPO story from at least two major angles. Jim Cramer&#8217;s verdict that it &#8220;couldn&#8217;t sustain the walk-up,&#8221; and Doug Kass&#8217;s short thesis. My colleague also covered Michael Burry studying the trade and walking away.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=2303\">Ford Mustang Mach-E Buyers Just Lost The Deals That Made It A Bargain<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>I have noticed one thing. Each voice has added something to the picture. Yes, that&#8217;s for sure. But the conversation that stuck with me most came from , the former Chairman and CEO of Nasdaq itself.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>When the man who runs the exchange SpaceX chose to list on sits down on CNBC and gives you a blunt assessment of what actually matters for the stock and not the aspirational story, but the mechanics, that is worth paying close attention to.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>According to Yahoo Finance, SPCX closed June 26 at $153.23, down sharply from its all-time high of $225.64 reached June 16, just days after its record-setting $135 IPO. The stock is now trading 32% below that peak.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Also Read: SpaceX Latest News and Stories<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>What Greifeld actually said and why the lockup math is the dominant factor<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Greifeld was direct in a way that financial executives rarely are on television. His framework stripped the SpaceX story down to two competing forces, and he was clear about which one wins.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>On the S&amp;P 500 fast-track rules that allowed SpaceX&#8217;s listing, Robert had this to say.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I would say just very clearly when the rules were set, it never contemplated a $75 billion IPO. IPOs were small back in the day. And they were concerned with having enough float out there. So, $75 billion is enough float for a public company, that&#8217;s for sure. The rules didn&#8217;t reflect the reality that exists today.&#8221; Robert Greifeld said in a CNBC interview.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>More SpaceX:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>SpaceX IPO gives Elon Musk a net worth number that stuns Wall Street<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Oppenheimer issues bold SpaceX stock price target<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>SpaceX lands $30 billion Google deal a week before its IPO<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Asked about the Nasdaq-100 inclusion expected in early July, Robert said this.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You do the math on what the likely buying power is. The cues are coming in. It&#8217;s somewhat muted. It&#8217;s going to happen over time. It&#8217;ll clearly be a positive.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Now here is where Robert got specific about the real risk. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The dominant factor here is you have $800 billion of locked-up shares that will become unlocked between now and the end of October. A lot of these shares were early investors. Whether they&#8217;re getting a 10x return or an 11x return, they&#8217;re going to be relatively price-insensitive. Their main issue, after waiting a long time, some of them over a decade, is liquidity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>My read of that framing is that index fund buying provides a floor, but $800 billion in unlocked shares held by decade-long investors who have already won spectacularly is a ceiling that the market&#8217;s incremental demand from passive funds cannot easily offset.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>Greifeld&#8217;s personal trade and his honest assessment of the valuation<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>What made the CNBC segment particularly interesting was Greifeld&#8217;s disclosure that he personally flipped SpaceX shares on its debut day. Not through his hedge fund, Cornerstone Financial Technology Management, which operates on a quantitative systematic basis, but as an individual investor making a judgment call.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>His reasoning was honest in a way you do not often hear from Wall Street veterans. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p> &#8220;When you think about this stock trading at 100 times revenue, it&#8217;s hard to come up with a model that gets you there. If you discount money at 10% over 30 years, you have to have a tremendous amount of money 30 years out. So it doesn&#8217;t meet fundamental criteria, the way I look at it. But clearly it meets aspirational criteria. And to bet against Elon has not been a smart move over the years. So from my perspective, it&#8217;s a speculative bet based on what you believe is possible.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=2301\">The 2026 Genesis GV80 Has One Trim That Quietly Makes the Most Sense<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>That is as clear-eyed a framing of the SpaceX trade as I have seen from anyone with genuine skin in the game.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Spencer Platt\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>The valuation context that supports Greifeld&#8217;s caution<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Greifeld&#8217;s fundamental concern is not new, but it has independent support from multiple directions.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>TheStreet reported that Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens maintained a fair value estimate of $62 per share even after SpaceX&#8217;s IPO, and lowered it modestly following the $60 billion Cursor acquisition, citing sizable dilution. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Even after the post-peak selloff, SPCX trades at more than 90 times 2025 revenue on a company that posted a net loss of $4.9 billion for the year, according to CNBC reporting. Total accumulated losses since founding in 2002 stand at $41.3 billion.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: SpaceX volatility just entered ordinary 401(k)s<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The only profitable segment is Starlink, which generated approximately $4.4 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in 2025. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) business lost $6.4 billion. The rocket business also runs at a loss. In Q1 2026, net losses deepened to $4.3 billion as AI data center scale-up costs accelerated, Thestreet reported.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>SpaceX does carry meaningful contracted future revenue. Google&#8217;s $30 billion cloud services agreement running through mid-2029 and Anthropic&#8217;s roughly $45 billion deal over approximately three years provide visibility that most newly public companies cannot point to.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Those contracts are real. But they are already known, already priced into a $2 trillion-plus market cap.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>The Nasdaq-100 addition and what it means for the stock<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>CNBC reports that SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. This inclusion will trigger mandatory buying from index funds tracking the index. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>That is a genuine near-term catalyst. But as Greifeld framed it, the quantum of passive fund buying is muted relative to the $800 billion in locked-up shares coming free between now and October.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The lockup dynamic is the make-or-break test Greifeld identified. Not the technology, not the revenue model, not even Elon Musk&#8217;s track record. It is the simple mechanical reality that early investors who have waited a decade for liquidity and are sitting on extraordinary returns will not hold out for an extra 10% gain. They will sell.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The next few months will answer the question of whether SpaceX&#8217;s aspirational story is large enough to absorb the selling.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: SpaceX&#8217;s 32% crash may force Musk into radical move<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><i>The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=2299\">Search for missing South Carolina woman who could be in danger<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I have now covered SpaceX&#39;s post-IPO story from at least two major angles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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