{"id":240,"date":"2026-05-22T05:36:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T05:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=240"},"modified":"2026-05-22T05:36:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T05:36:09","slug":"hurricane-season-forecast-is-below-normal-but-it-comes-with-a-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=240","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane season forecast is \u2018below normal\u2019 \u2014 but it comes with a warning"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be \u201cbelow normal,\u201d largely due to an El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=238\">Columbia man gets 16 years in federal prison for drug trafficking, DOJ says<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>NOAA\u2019s hurricane season outlook, released Thursday, forecasts 8 to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Forecasters say there\u2019s a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Despite the outlook, NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs cautioned people not to let their guard down.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven though we\u2019re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it\u2019s very important to understand that it only takes one,\u201d Jacobs said during a news briefing Thursday. He noted that Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall during below-average seasons in the past.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>NOAA\u2019s forecast closely aligns with several other leading commercial and academic projections. Last month, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. In March, AccuWeather predicted between 11 and 16 named storms for the 2026 season.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Forecasters have pointed to El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 a recurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures \u2014 as a key reason for the expected slowdown in storm activity.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><b>READ MORE: A \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o could form. What does that mean for South Florida?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>One of El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s biggest effects on the Atlantic basin is typically a reduction in hurricanes and tropical storms. Hurricanes develop through strong upward motion in the atmosphere, but El Ni\u00f1o increases upper-level wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation and make it more difficult for storms to strengthen.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s a 98% chance of El Ni\u00f1o conditions occurring this season, and an 80% chance that El Ni\u00f1o will be moderate to strong in the Atlantic, Jacobs said on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Last year\u2019s most destructive storm was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane. The storm caused nearly $9 billion in damage and was blamed for 95 deaths across the Caribbean.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>\u2018Everyone has to be ready\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The best time to start preparing for hurricane season is now, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said Thursday. He urged people to stock up on nonperishable food and medicine and be prepared to possibly go without electricity for weeks. Radios and flashlights, he said, are essential. Those with pets should also include them in their preparation plans.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Graham emphasized that people shouldn\u2019t let the words \u201cbelow-average\u201d affect how they prepare, and not to underestimate how quickly major storms can develop and move across the Atlantic.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>If you think \u201cyou\u2019re going to have weeks\u2019 notice, plenty of time,\u201d he said, \u201cthat is not the case.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>One statistic that stands out to Graham when reviewing storm records is that every Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was \u201ctropical storm or less three days out &#8230; they get here quick.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=237\">Rubio warns Cuban leaders they won\u2019t be able to \u2018buy time,\u2019 calls Cuba a \u2018threat\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>People should also prepare for all the potential impacts of a storm, including tornadoes, heavy rain, damaging winds, high surf, rip currents and storm surge, Graham said.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Over the last 10 years, more than half of the deaths have been from flooding, with many of those being inland and in vehicles, he said.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>He encouraged people to review their evacuation plans and warned about the dangers of floodwaters.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think the public fully realized that six inches of fast-moving water will knock you off your feet,\u201d Graham said. \u201cTwelve inches will carry most cars away.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cCheck on your neighbors, check on your family, make sure to have that preparedness,\u201d Graham said.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>New and old tech<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>NOAA will be rolling out new technology this year including the use of artificial intelligence through AI-based versions of various forecast systems, including a model developed in partnership with Google DeepMind, Jacobs announced on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>But the old tech is still around, including two P-3 aircrafts dubbed as \u201cKermit\u201d and \u201cMiss Piggy\u201d, which are marking 50 years of service.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cDespite their age, they are equipped with state-of-the art technology inside and out,\u201d NOAA Rear Admiral Chad Cary said.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s also the hurricane hunter known as the Gulfstream IV. Flying at about 45,000 feet, the plane circles and surveys hurricanes from above, collecting data on weather patterns such as steering currents that influence the storm below. The P-3s operate at much lower altitudes, around 10,000 feet, flying directly through a hurricane\u2019s eyewall.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe aircraft carry a suite of specialized instrumentation used to help us better understand and forecast hurricane intensity, structure and the hazards that impact the communities in the path of these storms,\u201d Cary said.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>NOAA is also expanding advanced flood and hurricane forecasting through high-resolution  that will allow people to see the streets and neighborhoods likely to go underwater. The mapping covers 60% of the U.S. population and will expand to nearly 100% by late September 2026.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>NOAA also launched an experimental rain rate dashboard, a customizable, real-time tool that shows the probability of extreme rainfall a week in advance for more than 60 U.S. cities.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=235\">SC Senate wants redistricting debate finished before early polls open<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with 8\u201314 named storms. El Ni\u00f1o likely to reduce activity but residents are urged to stay prepared.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hurricane season forecast is \u2018below normal\u2019 \u2014 but it comes with a warning - US Moving Experts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/usmovingexpertss.com\/?p=240\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hurricane season forecast is \u2018below normal\u2019 \u2014 but it comes with a warning - US Moving Experts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with 8\u201314 named storms. 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