By admin 
U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman enters the runoff in South Carolina’s Republican U.S. Senate special primary election with a path to victory, but a political scientist says it depends on winning over voters whose first choice was someone else.
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The Rock Hill congressman advanced to a runoff against Darline Graham Tuesday after neither candidate won enough support to claim the nomination outright. Now, Norman’s path depends heavily on whether he can consolidate voters who backed the rest of the Republican field, and whether those voters return to the polls.
Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University politics professor and director of the Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research, said Norman enters the runoff with a legitimate chance of winning.
“It’s winnable for Ralph Norman,” Huffmon said. “It’s not a low probability. It’s a decent probability.”
Gubernatorial race help
One of Norman’s biggest assets, Huffmon said, may be the statewide gubernatorial campaign he lost earlier this summer. Norman finished third in that race, but months of campaigning introduced him to Republican voters well beyond his 5th Congressional District.
“That money he spent running for governor to only get, you know, 17 percent of the vote, was some of the best money he ever spent, because it got him statewide name recognition,” Huffmon said.
Huffmon said Norman now enters the runoff with both statewide familiarity and an established identity as one of the more conservative members of Congress. Graham, meanwhile, is more closely associated with the traditional Republican establishment, he said.
That distinction could give Norman an opening among Republicans who supported third place finisher Russell Fry and other candidates Tuesday.
“Think of every vote that Darline Graham didn’t get as a vote potentially against the traditional Republican establishment,” Huffmon said. “If those voters line up behind Ralph Norman and they actually show up, he’s got a path to victory, and he’s got a straightforward path to victory.”
Turnout could also be decisive.
Huffmon said Norman performed strongly Upstate, particularly around Greenville and in his home base of York County, while Graham performed better in the Midlands and Lowcountry. Norman’s best route, he said, is to keep voters energized in those upstate strongholds while picking up support elsewhere. The danger comes if voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated simply stay home for the runoff.
“If numbers drop in the runoff and they drop among people whose candidate lost, that helps Darline Graham,” Huffmon said.
Norman made clear Tuesday night he understands the importance of winning over those voters.
“I may not have been the first choice. I may not have been the second choice. I want to be the third and fourth choice of everybody,” Norman told supporters at his election night watch party in Rock Hill. “I want everybody to unite and come with us because we’ve got the right message.”
He also said he planned to reach out to the other Republican candidates to seek their support.
What about Trump?
Graham also enters the runoff with an endorsement from President Donald Trump, typically a powerful advantage in Republican primaries. But Huffmon said recent results suggest Trump’s backing may no longer be an automatic ticket to victory.
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In South Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Trump initially endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who went on to lose the Republican runoff to Attorney General Alan Wilson. Trump later praised both candidates before the runoff. More recently, Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles lost his Republican primary in Tennessee, the first defeat for a Trump-backed federal candidate.
Huffmon said those losses raise questions about how much weight Trump’s endorsement will carry in a one-on-one South Carolina runoff.
“The first crack has been made, and here in South Carolina where his endorsement for governor fell flat, we have to wonder, is his endorsement the gold standard that it once was?” Huffmon asked.
Norman acknowledged Tuesday night he sought Trump’s endorsement, but Norman said the president’s decision to back Graham would not determine the outcome.
“Well, I asked for the president’s endorsement. Anybody would want to be endorsed. But he chose who he did, and that’s fine,” Norman said. “South Carolina’s going to decide the next U.S. senator.”
Norman makes his case
Norman’s challenge now is giving voters a reason to choose him over Graham when the two candidates agree on many core Republican priorities, Huffmon said.
Asked Tuesday how he would distinguish himself from Graham, Norman said his stances are clear and she still needs to spell out where she stands on issues including abortion, the death penalty and federal spending. He said debates would give voters a clearer comparison.
“My record is an open book,” Norman said. “You know what I’ve done, and I will continue that.”
Huffmon said that contrast may be difficult to make. Both candidates have aligned themselves with Trump’s agenda, leaving Norman with the task of proving Graham is the weaker choice.
That carries another complication: Darline Graham is the sister of Lindsey Graham, the longtime U.S. senator and nationally prominent Republican whose death triggered the special election.
“He has to find a way to undermine Darline Graham without seeming to viciously attack the sister of a senator who just died,” Huffmon said. “The big challenge for Ralph Norman is how do you throw sharp elbows at the sister of somebody who just unexpectedly passed.”
Norman appears eager to make that case directly. He said Tuesday he welcomed debates with Graham and wanted voters to hear more about her platform.
“The people in South Carolina need to know everything about where I stand and where she stands, and we will lay out those differences, which is a good thing,” Norman said.
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