By admin 
The field of candidates seeking to replace Lindsey Graham on the ballot for U.S. Senate dwindled down to two: U.S. Sen. Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman.
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The two candidates, one who doesn’t have much experience as a politician and another who has bucked the Republican Party, will fight for more than 50% of the vote, which neither was able to pick up in the Tuesday special primary.
Both Graham and Norman likely have a path to win the Republican nomination in two weeks. The victor will compete against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in November.
For Graham to win, she’ll likely have to turn out establishment Republican voters in regions of the state where she already exceeded, said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University.
Voters that have long looked for a more conservative alternative to Lindsey Graham may turn out to vote for Norman, he said. Huffmon dubbed those voters “disruptors.”
Norman could also have a “straightforward path to victory” if he picks up anti-establishment votes, Huffmon said.
Graham is a newcomer to politics, but she has establishment backers this election cycle. Several political groups that supported Lindsey Graham have helped her U.S. Senate campaign, and she has endorsements of President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott.
“She has a strong advantage among the Republican voters who showed up,” Huffmon said. “The way he [Norman] has an advantage is if the people who voted for all the other candidates are anti-establishment enough to line up behind whoever is running against the establishment candidate.”
“But there is no way to get around the fact that she walked out of that election with more votes than anybody else,” Huffmon said.
She’ll also have to rally support in the Midlands and Lowcountry, where she finished first in many counties, Huffmon said. In the 18 counties where she didn’t receive the most votes, Graham always finished second.
“In such a short time frame, you know there are some regions where you’ve got votes,” Huffmon said. “You have to make sure they turn out again, and try and build on that support.”
Graham finished ahead of Norman by about eight percentage points and more than 27,000 votes, according to unofficial Election Commission results. Graham had about 109,600 votes, and Norman had 82,500. More than 335,000 voted in the special August primary.
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Polls completed before the primary also largely showed Graham leading. A Co/efficient poll from late July puts Graham ahead of Norman by five percentage points in a head-to-head race, but 25% of voters were still undecided. 857 likely Republican voters were polled between July 28-30.
U.S. Rep. Russell Fry did not make the runoff, but he finished first in many counties in his Pee Dee and Grand Strand district. Graham will also have to try and catch some of Fry’s voters in the region, Huffmon said. Fry picked up more than 65,700 votes statewide, and fourth place finisher Mark Sanford received about 50,000. Neither candidate has endorsed yet, and it’s still unclear who their supporters would vote for in a runoff.
“Somebody, Norman or Graham, have to go after those Fry votes in Horry County, in the Myrtle Beach area … because there are a lot of fish in that pond,” Huffmon said.
Will Trump’s endorsement help?
Trump endorsed Graham, a factor that will help her, politics watchers said. But support from the president doesn’t mean an easy win.
Trump has a near perfect track record for political endorsements in federal primaries, Huffmon said. U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tennessee, an incumbent backed by Trump, is the exception because he lost his primary earlier this month.
Another Trump endorsement in South Carolina also did not pan out this year. He initially endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for governor, but she lost decisively in the runoff. The president did co-endorse Attorney General Alan Wilson days before the runoff, when support consolidated around the eventual Republican nominee.
If Trump campaigns in South Carolina before the runoff, that could help Graham, Huffmon said.
“You have a crack in his perfect record for federal endorsements, and you have the fact that his endorsement fell flat in this state, not that long ago,” Huffmon said. “She [Graham] is going to have to work hard to make that endorsement mean as much as the Trump endorsement used to.”
Will gloves come off?
Graham will also likely have to find ways to criticize Norman, Huffmon said. It may be tricky because she can’t directly compare her record to his, Huffmon said.
A super PAC supporting Graham, Security is Strength, has already posted a negative one-minute-long cartoon video targeting Norman. The video criticized Norman’s track record in the U.S. House and his business practices.
Graham and Norman are expected to participate in a televised debate Aug. 18 in Newberry County, where they may spar.
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