By admin 
State Rep. Jermaine Johnson and Dr. Annie Andrews, the top of the Democratic ticket in South Carolina, the charismatic party standard-bearers, are insisting they have a real chance to win their races in November, despite running in a reliably Republican state.
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Both campaigns, in moves that could help gin up fundraising, have released internal polls showing their races within single digits of opponents.
Johnson says he trails by seven points, when the 2022 Democratic nominee for governor lost by 17 percentage points.
Andrews, who is running for the U.S. Senate, says her race is tied according to an Impact Research survey.
The cycle is expected to be tough for Republicans with President Donald Trump in the White House. The opposing party is traditionally energized, coupled with the high price of fuel amid the war with Iran, could spell trouble for the GOP.
But certain fundamentals remain in South Carolina.
Democrats will need to convince Republican voters to cross over, or at least not vote a straight GOP ticket.
A Democrat has not won statewide since 2006. A Democrat has not won the governor’s office or a U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina since 1998.
In the June 9 primary, when Democratic voters were energized over failed GOP efforts to engage in a middecade redistricting, 56% of ballots cast were in the GOP contests; 44% were in Democratic contests.
In the 2018 midterms elections during Trump’s first term, James Smith lost to Gov. Henry McMaster by 8 percentage points.
Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. They have six of the state’s seven congressional seats and both U.S. senators.
Johnson insisted releasing the poll, which puts the race within two points when testing his positive bio against Wilson, is more than just a play to boost fundraising. However, California Gov. Gavin Newsom sent out a fundraising appeal to his email list.
For Johnson, the poll shows the strategy his campaign will follow leading up to November balloting, he said. Johnson will want to continuously repeat his biography of being homeless but eventually earning a basketball scholarship at the College of Charleston.
“They need to know my bio. And once they know my name and know my bio, it’s clear, cut and dry. Is that we are the better option to be the next governor of South Carolina,” Johnson said. “The poll just confirmed everything that we’ve been saying this entire time that we just need to meet people where they are.”
Steve Michael, who is the general consultant for Republican nominee for governor Alan Wilson, dismissed the Johnson survey as a push poll.
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Michael said the Johnson poll tested Wilson’s negatives against Johnson’s positives and compared it to a football team practicing against air.
“In a campaign, you don’t get to run against air, you have to run against an opponent, who has ideas and a message and has the ability to run against your record,” Michael posted on X. “Appreciate the hustle and the truth is, the environment nationally has its challenges …, but yeah … this is a fundraising appeal and nothing more.”
The Senate race
An internal poll from the Andrews campaign said the race is tied. An Impact Research poll memo obtained by The State includes recommendations for Andrews campaign to build a lead, including naming specific instances where she may buck the Democratic Party and work across the aisle. The messaging has shown up in recent television advertisement where says she will work with Republicans to cut taxes and keep people safe.
The memo outlines of possible attacks against U.S. Sen. Darline Graham as being a “rubber stamp” for Trump and continuing her the legacy of her late brother, Lindsey Graham.
“This race will be determined by how those undecideds ultimately end up voting, which is why we’re working so hard every single day to talk to as many voters as we can about our actual plans to address the problems South Carolinians are facing,” Andrews said in an interview.
“We’re going to be using the polling to focus on what our messaging should be to appeal to the most voters in the center and on the right. It’s not about changing where I stand or what my policy positions are is just changing what we emphasize within my policy,” Andrews said.
Darline Graham’s campaign maintains its confidence the state’s junior senator will be victorious. Graham’s campaign appears to continue to hit Andrews on transgender issues and attach her to Democratic socialist movements.
“No one will outwork Darline Graham,” campaign spokeswoman Abby Zilch said in a statement. “Campaigns are won on the ground, traveling the state and talking directly with South Carolina voters and that’s what Sen. Darline Graham and her campaign are doing.”
As long as the race is perceived to be close, money could pour into the state. In 2020, when Jaime Harrison was polling within single digits of Lindsey Graham, lots of cash from outside of South Carolina came into the state on both sides of the aisle.
Lindsey Graham ended up winning by 10 points.
But if significant amounts of money comes in for this election and free of inhibition of knocking doors during a pandemic, Democrats are hoping for a better outcome that includes helping down ballot candidates and potentially flipping state House seats where Republicans hold a supermajority.
“One of my driving motivations was I knew having a candidate at the top of the ticket who could bring national attention to this race, who could bring money into this race, would benefit the effort to claw back at the Republican supermajority,” Andrews said.
For the state Democratic Party having well-funded campaigns at the top of the ticket is key. Releasing internal polls helps raise money, which can be sent to the party and benefit those down ballot as Democrats have a candidate for every statewide office, congressional seat and state House seat.
“It’s a synergy that works that we have never had before, because everybody has an election this time. Not just certain people in certain spots of the state, but everybody. And it’s not just a statewide election,” said Christale Spain, chair of the state Democratic Party.
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