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A national election watcher shifted South Carolina’s U.S. Senate rating in favor of Democratic candidate Annie Andrews, though Republican U.S. Sen. Darline Graham is still “heavily favored” to win.
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The Cook Political Report changed South Carolina’s U.S. Senate partisan rating from “solidly Republican” to “likely Republican” Wednesday. Jessica Taylor, a U.S. Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, said the financial support for Andrews and competitive August Republican primary made it a race to watch.
“I think that all of these factors and just the uniqueness of the race right now, where you had the incumbent pass away, his sister elevated to this role, she’s a political newcomer,” Taylor said in an interview. “It sort of all combined to at least make it a race that we’re watching, but one where Sen. Darline Graham still has the very clear advantage.”
Andrews, a pediatrician from Mount Pleasant, faces an uphill battle against Graham, but the ranking change suggests the election could become more competitive in its final weeks. Third-party U.S. Senate candidates include Libertarian Kasie Whitener and Mark Hackett of the Constitution Party.
The Cook Political Report change puts South Carolina’s U.S. Senate contest in the category with Nebraska for states leaning likely GOP. Georgia and Minnesota are on the side of the spectrum likely favoring Democratic candidates.
The report lists 13 states as “solidly Republican,” where South Carolina previously ranked, including Alabama, Florida and Kentucky.
“This race is getting the attention it deserves because South Carolinians are tired of paying record-high diesel prices, watching their health care get gutted, and getting squeezed by higher interest rates,” Andrews said in a news release Wednesday.
It’s not the first time the Cook Political Report shifted South Carolina’s partisan rating. The 2020 race between U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison was rated as a toss-up, Taylor said. Harrison lost by 10 points. A spokesperson for Graham wrote “buyer beware” about the partisan shift and repeated the 2020 scenario.
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This year, President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot, and Graham isn’t as entrenched of an incumbent as her brother, Taylor said.
MS Now also listed the South Carolina U.S. Senate race as one to watch Sept. 16, writing election forecasts still favored Republicans, but it could be more competitive than initially thought. Decision Desk HQ rates South Carolina’s Senate race as leaning Republican.
Republican governor candidate Alan Wilson and Graham campaigned together early Monday morning in Lexington County. While supporters drank coffee and ate breakfast, Wilson warned Democratic leaders saw South Carolina as an opportunity to pick up a Senate seat following the death of Lindsey Graham, the initial GOP nominee.
“We just chose our United States Senate nominee a few weeks ago, while they’ve had months to consolidate around theirs,” Wilson said of the Democratic Party. “The national Democratic Party is consolidated at the national level. They had looked at this state prior to the passing of Sen. Graham with kind of a passive eye, but now they’re very intent on it. Now, they think they can take a United States senator off the map and put it in the Democratic column in Washington, D.C.”
The South Carolina governor race is still rated as “solidly Republican” by the Cook Political Report. Wilson is competing against state Rep. Jermaine Johnson.
Andrews and Graham will participate in a debate hosted by SCETV Oct. 11, both campaigns confirmed earlier this month.
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Election Day is Nov. 3 and early voting begins Oct. 19.