By admin 
In a political environment where the Republican president is unpopular nationally, the state Democratic Party is looking to make gains in the South Carolina state House.
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The party fielded candidates for each of the 124 House seats, even if the districts are long shots of flipping blue.
Republicans hold an 89-35 supermajority in the state House. Democrats need to flip seven seats in order to break the supermajority. Because of the way most districts are drawn, however, not all the races will be truly competitive Nov. 3.
But Democrats have several districts in suburban areas and rural areas, such as District 12 in Greenwood and McCormick counties and District 57 in Horry, Marion and Williamsburg counties, with a high amount of Black voters, they can target to possibly flip. Republicans have their own sites set on seats that might be ripe for the taking.
In 2024, the margin between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris was within 10 points in 27 House districts.
Of those, six districts represented by Republicans saw more people pull a Democratic primary ballot than a GOP ballot in the June 9 primary. Most of those are in the Lowcountry in or near the 1st Congressional District.
SCGOP Chairman Drew McKissick pointed out the districts that potentially could be close or flip were seats Republicans flipped in the last six years.
“Those were districts that you can go back and you can look in time that were slowly trending Republican, and we picked them off earlier than we otherwise would have because of a combination of good candidates, good resources, political environment and good organization,” McKissick said.
Republican leadership acknowledged the national mood environment is conducive to Democratic pickups.
Affordability issues remain top of mind for consumers, gas and diesel prices are high amid an unpopular war with Iran and Trump has low approval ratings, which may keep GOP voters home and energize Democratic voters. The party that controls the White House traditionally sees losses in the midterms.
“The headwinds are not in our favor, but we’re fighting good campaigns. We’re going to be defending quite a few seats. We’re also going to be targeting some,” state Rep. Brandon Newton, R-Lancaster, who also serves as an assistant majority leader.
State Rep. Roger Kirby, D-Florence, and who also serves as the first vice chairman of the SC Democratic Party, acknowledged that a lot also has to go right for Democrats on Election Day for them to make gains.
“I think part of the equation is obviously we’ve got to have significant Democrat turnout, and in reality, that also has to be somehow coupled with a lower turnout on the Republican side, whether it be from frustration with President Trump’s actions, or the war, or gas,” Kirby said. “This is all going to be ground game. It’s all going to be turnout driven, and it’s an opportunity we think to potentially help us get out of this super minority status.”
Several districts in the Lowcountry, within or near the 1st Congressional District, which itself has gained attention from national Democratic groups, could see close races. House Districts 92, 98, 102, 116 and 122, held by Republicans, are among those that are expected to be battlegrounds.
McKissick said Republicans could look to take back House District 115, held by outgoing Democratic lawmaker Spencer Wetmore, but would not divulge any other potential pickup targets.
“I don’t think the risk of Republicans losing those seats is substantial in every district … but there are some for sure where big national Democrat money will move the needle. I mean that’s what history tells us,” House Majority Leader Micah Caskey said.
“When you start looking at the first congressional district and the potential for outside intervention there, that has a real potential impact on our guys,” Caskey added.
House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford was confident that Democrats could pick up five to seven seats but would not say which districts his party has an eye on.
“We filed back in March, and Trump had not driven us off the precipice by March,” Rutherford said. “But now all of the things that Republicans are doing are starting to come home to roost, and so I think you’ll see modest gains this time. But I predict there’ll be even more in two years as he continues to do the absurd and insane, and Republicans aren’t willing to stand up to him.”
SC Democrats were proud they had recruited a candidate for every state House seat, every constitutional office, every congressional district and for the special state Senate race in York County.
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Kirby said hopefuls are in their districts knocking doors and doing other tasks to be competitive and potentially win.
“Our candidates are working hard, and at the end of the day, that’s all we can ask them to do and expect of them,” Kirby said.
Having candidates in every House district emboldened potential 2028 presidential candidates who have visited the state to campaign in places where Republicans are favored.
“Our on the road tour is about organizing everywhere. So for over a year and a half, we’ve taken national leaders like Gov. (Gavin) Newsom, Sen. Cory Booker, Gov. Wes Moore, all across South Carolina, and no, we haven’t taken them to Columbia. We haven’t taken them to Charleston. We haven’t taken them to Greenville, but we’ve taken them to the rural places, the red places where Democrats have felt left behind. Because if we want to win everywhere, we (have) to organize everywhere,” Democratic Party Chairwoman Christale Spain said.
The party also has focused on visits to districts it considers in play.
For example Newsom’s recent visit included stops in Beaufort, Jasper and Dorchester counties which were designed to help Sonja Ogletree Satani, who is looking to oust state Rep. Greg Ford, and Korey Williams, who is looking to beat state Rep. Bill Hager.
“Our stops were intentional for those state House seats. Like where we’ve gone this last two days was where we were trying to flip seats,” Spain said during a stop with Newsom.
The South Carolina Democratic Party, which will kick off the Democratic National Committee’s presidential nominating process, brought Moore, a potential White House hopeful to House Speaker Murrell Smith’s district and to District 116 where Clay Middleton is challenging freshman state Rep. James Teeple, R-Charleston.
Teeple’s seat is one that could flip blue. He won the seat in 2024 by less than 3 percentage points. Trump won the district by less than 1 point over Harris in 2024. But the biggest warning sign is that 1,200 more people in the district pulled Democratic ballots than Republican ballots in the June 9 primary.
Democrats challenging each seat forces every Republican to be out on the campaign trail, even where they may not have had a challenger year in years. Speaker Smith, a Sumter Republican, who has been unopposed for several election cycles, is sharing posts on his social media of him knocking doors, meeting with voters and speaking at candidate forums.
“I don’t think it’s any different than the way that we’ve campaigned in the past. Certainly, the amount of money that gets put into some of these races increases the visibility,” Caskey said. “The speaker has been an incredible fundraiser among his many attributes. He’s raised a lot of money, so he can spend some of that money, and all of a sudden it shows up in all of our Facebook feeds.”
Smith represents a district Trump beat Harris in by more than 18 points and should be favored to win in November. But every minute Smith spends campaigning in his own district is a minute he can’t be somewhere else helping another member of the House GOP caucus.
Helping make up for that is retiring state Rep. Davey Hiott, R-Pickens, who switched to a role of House majority leader emeritus. He is traveling the state to campaign for other House Republicans.
“It’s actually good that all of our members have a race this time because all of us are in the same fight and we’re working the same angle, and it’s been a great sight for me to see all of my colleagues on social media, including the speaker, taking their race seriously, and proving that you should always take a race seriously, don’t take a vote for granted, but also to run on our successes,” Newton said.
Even though Republicans hold 89 seats, they didn’t have a candidate in each district. Democrats are alone on the ballot in 20 House districts. In each of those districts, at least 37% of the registered voters are Black.
McKissick said he didn’t discourage anyone from running and said the party has to make decisions on where to best spend dollars.
“I pity the Democratic chair(woman) and the folks in leadership over there because I’m sure they’re hearing from a lot of candidates in districts that they otherwise don’t need to be running in begging for resources,” McKissick said.
Kirby conceded not all the 124 House candidates will receive large amounts of financial support from the party because of limited resources.
But having a challenger in each district, also gives Democratic voters who may not have had a local candidate in the past, someone to vote for who they may know personally.
“There’s not going to be big resources going to every one of these races,” Kirby said. “We just don’t have that in the state. But we do have now someone that your neighbor may know, this candidate that’s running for the House or whatever (seat), and they’ve got somebody they can actually show up for.”
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