By admin 
Polling ahead of the Aug. 11 special South Carolina Republican Senate primary shows a runoff most likely will be needed Aug. 25 as no candidate hoping to replace the late Lindsey Graham on the November ballot is close to eclipsing the 50% mark.
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With 10 people vying for GOP bid, only four candidates, U.S. Rep. Russell Fry, U.S. Sen. Darline Graham, U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman and former Gov. Mark Sanford, polled in double digits in any of the three publicly released surveys conducted between July 28 and July 30 after filing for the seat closed.
Darline Graham, Gov. Henry McMaster’s appointee to complete her brother’s term, was in first place in two polls, one survey conducted by Trafalgar Group and one by Co/Efficient. An Emerson College poll had Norman in first place and Darline Graham in second place.
Lindsey Graham’s funerals took place in Washington, D.C., and South Carolina on July 28 and 29. Darline Graham’s campaign paused activities on those days, but the high-profile events kept her on television.
The polling was key. The South Carolina Republican Party only invited five candidates to Monday’s televised debate based on the results.
Norman and Sanford may be fighting for one lane in this race as they both have expressed concerns about the federal government’s debt and deficit.
“I think we need an advocate for the taxpayer in Washington, D.C., as (that) has not been the case in quite some time. That’ll at times pit you against Democrats. It’ll pit you against Republicans. It’ll pit you against a number of folks because the most unwatched person in Washington, D.C., or in for that matter, at times Columbia, S.C, is the taxpayer,” Sanford said.
Norman, during his campaign for governor, often spoke about using the line-item veto to rein in spending. He is a member of the Freedom Caucus in Congress and has support from members of the S.C. House Freedom Caucus.
“Above all, we’ve got to get the financial house in order. When your interest that you’re paying on the debt exceeds what we’re paying for the military, it’s not right,” Norman said.
Fry and Darline Graham may find themselves battling in another lane and they both have said they plan to be different from Lindsey Graham.
“I think domestic policy is very important. Foreign policy is important, too, but America first politics starts at home. Charity begins at home, and look, there’s a lot of needs and pressures around the world, and certainly the United States needs to lead and show that strength around the world. Strength is an incredible deterrent, but we need to make sure that we’re taking care of the citizens of this country,” Fry said.
In her first interview, Darline Graham said she wanted her brother to speak about issues average voters care about such as the price of gas and groceries.
“One thing about me, I know how to bargain shop. I look for the buy one, get one free sales in the grocery store,” Darline Graham said Saturday, while sporting new shoes she bought off the clearance rack. “I cut my own grass with a push mower, and, yes, I know how to use a weed eater. Lindsey was an expert on the federal budget. I’m an expert on the family budget.”
But what else do the polls say?
The Co/Efficient poll has Norman leading in the Charlotte, N.C.,-area. Norman, who has endorsements from 12 state lawmakers, has represented South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District, which is outside Charlotte, since 2017.
Fry, who is from the Grand Strand, leads in the Myrtle Beach area.
Graham leads in the Greenville, Charleston and Columbia areas.
Because of the quick turnaround from Graham’s death to the special primary, campaigns have to spend resources reminding voters to go to the polls.
In the Co/Efficient poll, Graham led among those who voted in four out of the last four primaries.
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The Emerson Poll had Graham leading among voters who were 70 and older. The Co/Efficient poll had Graham leading among respondents 65 and older.
Mark Lynch is polling in the single digits in all three of the polls. This is despite receiving 29% of the vote in the June 9 primary Lindsey Graham initially won the nomination.
Lynch, who put in $5 million of his own money into the initial primary challenge, established himself in that race as the prime anti-Lindsey Graham option. But this race is short and wide open, with other established names on the ballot. Lynch, who was invited to debates Monday and Tuesday, will probably find himself with less share of the vote in this is special primary.
Co/Efficient also released favorable and unfavorable ratings for Fry, Graham and Norman.
All three hold net favorable ratings.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Fry, while 9% viewed him unfavorably; 36% were unsure.
Fry who has represented the 7th Congressional District for two terms has to expand his name ID the most among the perceived top three candidates as 27% of respondents have never heard of him.
Graham had a 40% favorable rating and 17% unfavorable rating. The poll found 37% were unsure and 6% never heard of her.
Norman, who ran for governor earlier this year, had a 33% favorable rating and 23% unfavorable rating. The poll found 35% of respondents were unsure and 9% of respondents never heard of him.
Darline Graham also has President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the race. Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette ahead of the Republican primary for governor, which helped Evette advance to the runoff, which she lost to Attorney General Alan Wilson.
The Emerson College poll found 53% of respondents said Trump’s endorsement makes no impact on who they would vote for in the special primary; 29% said the endorsement made it more likely to support Trump’s preferred candidate and 18% said the endorsement makes it less likely.
Although the late Lindsey Graham focused heavily on foreign policy issues, that topic may not resonate with primary voters. According to the Emerson poll, 60% of respondents think the economy is the issue the next South Carolina senator should focus on; 19% said it should be immigration and 8% said health care. Only 4% said the next senator should focus on foreign policy.
With no candidate close to clinching the nomination Aug. 11, Co/Efficient also looked at three hypothetical runoff match ups.
Graham leads in a match up with Norman, 40% to 35% with 25% undecided.
Fry leads in a match up with Norman, 36% to 28%, with 35% undecided.
In a Fry-Graham match up, Fry leads 40% to 31%, with 29% undecided.
Fry’s campaign on social media said the poll shows the campaign, which is endorsed by more than 40 members of the state’s General Assembly, where Fry served for four terms, is gaining momentum.
Graham’s campaign questioned the validity of the survey result.
“Darline leads Fry by 14 on the initial ballot. She gets 11 points more among leaners than Fry, has a better image rating than Fry, larger share who say they will consider voting for her in the runoff than Fry, and yet is down on a head-to-head by 9 points to Fry? Right,” Graham’s campaign manager Mark Knoop posted on X.
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