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Feeder bands from Hurricane Isias have reached the Gulf Coast, and the powerful storm is expected to be at, or near, major-hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center said, in its 1 p.m. report, that Isaias is carrying maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, making the storm a major Category 3 hurricane. While warnings and watches remain for all of South Mississippi, the hurricane center’s forecast track calls for a landfall east of Pensacola Bay.
At 1 p.m., the center of Isaias was located about 145 miles south of Pensacola, and was moving north-northeast at 16 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure has fallen to 959 mb.
“Isaias is in a race against the clock,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Tyler Roys. “Strong winds high in the atmosphere are expected to disrupt the hurricane before landfall, but if those winds arrive even a few hours later than expected, Isais could maintain its Category 3 strength. Regardless of whether it makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane or Category 3 hurricane, communities along the Gulf Coast face a serious threat from life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding.”
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When is landfall expected?
The NHC says Isaias is expected to turn northward and accelerate later Friday due to increasing flow between an upper trough near the northwestern Gulf Coast and a subtropical ridge extending across the western Atlantic. Landfall is expected to occur within the hurricane warning area tonight.
How strong will Isaias be?
The NHC reports strong deep-layer shear has increased. However, the shear vector is nearly aligned with the storm’s motion, which limits its adverse effects, and upper-level divergence is also increasing over the hurricane. This setup has likely allowed the hurricane to intensify this morning, and the hurricane regional models, as well as the statistical-dynamical models, all suggest that Isaias could maintain major hurricane intensity up until its landfall this evening. Therefore, the NHC official forecast depicts Isaias with 115-mph winds just offshore the western Florida Panhandle this evening. Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias’s track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama.
Current warnings
- A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwanee River in Florida.
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Ocean Springs to the Gulf County in Florida.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, and Gulf County to the Aucilla River in Florida.
What current warnings mean
- A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Watch, advisory, warning: What’s the difference?
- A watch is issued when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. A watch means that hazardous weather is possible. People should have a plan of action in case a storm threatens and they should listen for later information and possible warnings especially when planning travel or outdoor activities.
- An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent or likely. Advisories are for less serious conditions than warnings, that cause significant inconvenience and if caution is not exercised, could lead to situations that may threaten life or property.
- A warning is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent or likely. A warning means weather conditions pose a threat to life or property. People in the path of the storm need to take protective action.
‘Key messages’ from National Hurricane Center at 10 a.m.
The National Hurricane Center identified these “key messages” in its 10 a.m. advisory Friday:
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- A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials.
- Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages.
- Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees.
- Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and significant river flooding, are possible.
- The tornado potential will increase this afternoon and continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday