By admin 
As El Niño continues to strengthen, data is increasingly points to a clear pattern this upcoming snow season: a wet winter for California, and a warm winter for the Pacific Northwest.
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We took the data behind our upcoming winter season and applied it to snow using three independent climate models.
The results give us a rough picture of a winter that features above-average snowfall for the Sierra and Northern California — especially in January. With models projecting an inch or three or extra snowfall for the first month of 2027, a below-average snow year is looking increasingly unlikely.
The variables that inform these projections are already informing other winter outlooks as everyone from governments to ski resorts moves to prepare for the winter on its way.
Climate Prediction Center aligns with textbook El Niño winter
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest season outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern U.S. alongside increased precipitation for California and the southeastern U.S. — a textbook El Niño winter pattern, and not surprising given this El Niño’s already incredible strength.
The outlook is not just a rip from the textbook — real data is increasingly and continually backing up these expectations. Climate models are already pointing towards this winter scenario, giving us an early look at what to roughly expect months ahead of time.
It might seem nonsensical that we can predict the weather out months ahead, but the value lies in the distinction between climate and weather. The weather models that power the weather app on your phone simulate the atmosphere at each hour, out for days to a week or two. On the other hand, climate models zoom way out to simulate the overall pattern across the entire globe and consider factors such as sea surface temperatures and the jet stream. This smoothed over approach has shown skill in predicting the climate out weeks and months ahead of time.
To get the scoop of the winter headed our way, we compiled the precipitation and temperature data from three independent climate models: the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecasting System (CFSv2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Seasonal Forecasting System (SEAS5) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), itself a collaboration between NOAA, NASA, and other partners. Then we used elevation data to produce a loose look at what snow season has in store months ahead of time.
California, Sierra looking snowy come December and January
With a wet winter comes more rain than normal — that’s a given. What is not is just how much of that will come as snow.
Thankfully for snow lovers, California’s many mountains — from the Sierra to the Klamath — are tall enough to turn that rain to snow even during moderately warmer winters. Our projections bring above average snowfall for all three climate models across the Sierra and Northern California. The boost is especially evident during January, when the average boost is on the order of an additional few inches across the Sierra and Tahoe region.
There are, of course, a few caveats. First, this is only modeled snowfall, not standing snowpack. Warmer temperatures brought on by El Niño’s extra heat could work to melt additional snowfall even at higher elevations. Indeed, both the climate prediction center’s new seasonal outlook and our suite of climate models point to warmer-than-average temperatures across Northern California this winter.
This effect of this warmth is most likely to felt at lower elevations such as in the foothills and halfway up many mountain slopes. Despite a potential for increased precipitation, warmer temperatures would shift the rain-snow line higher up the mountainside, leaving many mountain communities with rain instead.
It is also important to understand that any extra precipitation and snowfall this winter will not be as evenly spread as these climate models depict. While an inch or three of snow per month would be nice for many Sierra resorts, the nature of weather is much more localized — some places would get average snow, while others get significantly above-average snow. Below-average snowfall is increasingly unlikely this winter for many Sierra and Tahoe ski resorts.
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And while winter may prove to be a wet and snowy one in time, don’t expect it to come early. The extra warmth will likely translate to temperatures that hold off the start of snow season past November and possibly even partway into December as warmth persists.
Tahoe resorts are preparing for more snow
As ski season draws closer, many are already beginning to form their winter plans on the slopes. With the outlook looking decent for the Lake Tahoe region, many ski resorts themselves are beginning to lock in.
Palisades Tahoe spokeperson Christine Horvath said the resort plans to open Nov. 25.
“Our crews are hard at work with routine maintenance and a few pretty significant new investments on the mountain that will improve the guest experience and our operation,” said Horvath. “We always go into the season with planning and optimism for a great snow year, and we are excited for the potential of what an El Niño can deliver.“
Meanwhile, the trio of Vail resorts — Northstar, Heavenly and Kirkwood — are targeting opening dates of Nov. 20 in Tahoe and Dec. 4 for Kirkwood.
“While we never know what the weather is going to bring, there’s a lot of buzz surrounding the possibility of a super El Niño this winter and our teams across Heavenly, Northstar, and Kirkwood are feeling the hype as we get ready for our target opening dates,” wrote Vail spokesperson Cole Zimmerman.
Pacific Northwest: Warmer and drier than usual
The Pacific Northwest is famous for its rainy winters. And while there are surely set to be many cloudy and drizzly days in store for Washington, Oregon and even Idaho this winter, it is looking increasingly likely there will be less of that to go around.
As El Niño remains strong into winter, its presence will pull the jet stream that normally brings rain to the northwest coast south toward California at times. The result would be a reduction in the long rainy stretches that are familiar for this corner of the country, and likely with it a reduction in typical snowfall at elevation.
Even more influential will be warmer temperatures forecast for the region. From the coast of Washington inland to Montana, above-average temperatures will very likely shift the rain-snow line to higher elevations and melt snow faster than normal this winter season.
That’s not to say that the ski season will be a dud — many popular locations area at high enough elevations to hold a decent snowpack, and any below average snowfall or more likely to be modest than severe. Still, the odds of an above-average year across this stretch of the nation are, for now, low thanks to the developing Super El Niño.
What can be more easily said is that any low-elevation snow will be increasingly unlikely during November and December across the Pacific Northwest. A rare dusting for Seattle or Portland seems improbable given the current setup.
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