By admin 
After months of anticipation, El Niño has finally begun in the Pacific Ocean.
Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on June 11 that water temperatures have warmed enough that the naturally occurring climate event had developed and issued an El Niño advisory.
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Even though it formed thousands of miles away, El Niño can have a wide-ranging impact on the weather in the U.S., but SC may not see the same effects as other parts of the country.
Here’s a rundown of how El Niño actually works and how it might impact weather in the SC Midlands:
What is El Niño?
El Niño occurs every two to seven years on average, and is a climate pattern that has global impacts on weather, wildfires and ecosystems, which, in turn, can affect economies. Episodes of El Niño typically last nine to 12 months, but they can also last several years.
El Niño is Spanish for “Little Boy” and is characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which disrupts normal winds and pushes warm water eastward toward the west coast of the Americas. Once temperatures in the Pacific are 0.5°C above average for several consecutive months, El Niño has officially developed.
What does El Niño mean for the Midlands?
The warming waters impact weather across the world, as El Niño pushes a jet stream from the Pacific eastward across the U.S., causing areas in the northern U.S. and Canada to be drier and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are usually wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
The summer heat will not go away, and the area is predicted to be warmer than usual.
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, temperatures in the Midlands will have a 33% to 50% chance of being above-normal during the months of July, August and September.
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Even though El Niño usually means stormier and wetter weather in the South, the CPC expects equal chances of rainfall in the next three months in the Midlands.
El Niño also disrupts normal wind patterns, creating conditions that deter tropical storms and hurricanes. As a result, the NOAA predicts a below-normal hurricane season and fewer named storms to touch U.S. soil.
These conditions become more pronounced depending on the strength of the El Niño event. Scientists say there’s a good chance that this year’s El Niño will become very strong, turning into what’s informally called a “Super” El Niño.
How would a Super El Niño affect the Midlands?
There’s a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific will exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius, according to NOAA. If this threshold is surpassed, the agency considers the event a very strong El Niño.
A Super El Niño is the same as a standard El Niño, but they are much rarer and they have a stronger impact on the weather. According to the Weather Channel, there have been 27 El Niños since 1950, and there have only been five super El Niños since 1950, the last one occurring in 2016.
The NWS may be predicting average rainfall for the next few months, but it only takes one bad storm to cause dangerous flooding. Here are tips to stay prepared:
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- Stay informed of potential storms Determine whether your home, school or work is in an area likely to flood
- Assemble an emergency kit
- Prepare for possible evacuation
- Pack your bags and include items for your pets so you are ready to leave at a moment’s notice
- Get to higher ground if you are in an area that is subject to flooding