By admin 
Predictions for a below-normal season for hurricane activity have held up in the Atlantic Ocean, with only five tropical storms. But that doesn’t mean the Hilton Head area is in the clear just yet.
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This year’s Atlantic hurricane predictions were made because of a strengthening El Niño, which is now has a 90% or greater chance of becoming a very strong El Niño.
An El Niño forms when sea temperatures are 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several consecutive months. Their strengths range from weak (0.5 to 1 degrees Celsius above average), moderate (1 to 1.5 degrees), strong (1.5 to 2 degrees) and very strong (exceeding 2 degrees). A very strong El Niño is also widely accepted as a Super El Niño.
During El Niño cycles, strong wind shear in the tropical Atlantic makes it difficult for systems to form or strengthen. This is why few storms have developed this year.
However, wind shear, which describes how the wind changes speed or direction, is not strong in all areas of the Atlantic. Pockets where it is weaker are more vulnerable to storm formation, especially in areas with warm tropical water.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System, wind shear is predicted to be on the weak side off the coast of the Carolinas through October. That means if “locally-born” tropical systems begin to swirl, they will face less adversity while trying to form and strengthen.
As of Thursday, there are no chances of tropical formation in the Atlantic in the next seven days. The National Hurricane Center updates its tropical weather outlook with chances of cyclone formation. Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30, but storms can form outside the peak window.
How else will El Niño impact coastal South Carolina’s fall weather?
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the fall, a conclusion based on decades-long trends of a warming climate, according to the National Weather Service.
High temperatures sustain through periods of less rainfall, but Beaufort County will likely see above average rainfall through the end of November. Seasonal rainfall often varies in the fall, and is mainly dependent on the amount of rain from tropical systems.
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Coastal South Carolina has battled a severe drought since the end of 2025, but recent rainfall has helped alleviate the intensity. Beaufort County has had the driest year on record, with nearly 13 inches below normal rainfall since the beginning of the year. The county may pull out of a drought entirely by December.
Atlantic hurricane season named storms for 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Aug. 6 to seven to 13 named storms and two to six hurricanes, with zero to two developing into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Tropical Storm Arthur developed in the Gulf on June 17, dumping heavy rain in portions of Texas before dissipating near Louisiana, still producing strong storms and heavy rain across the southeast.
Tropical Storm Bertha also formed in the Gulf on July 20, impacting similar areas on the Gulf coast. Tropical Storm Cristobal formed on Aug. 12 far out in the Atlantic and was tracking east, but it barely lasted 24 hours before breaking apart. No storm-related impacts occurred.
Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the Atlantic on Aug. 27, but dissipated before reaching the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Aug. 31, and made landfall near the border of Louisiana and Texas before weakening to a tropical depression.
No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic yet this season. The next named storm will be called Fay.
In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, the first named storm forms by June 20, the first hurricane by Aug. 11 and the first major hurricane by Sept. 1.
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